Welcome to Michael’s Musings Facebook page feed. Here, you’ll find all our latest posts, thoughts, and updates on financial planning, current trends, and practical advice.
297
Michael's Musings
Musings on money and finance, from a Financial Planner based in East Perth, Western Australia. Nothing on this Facebook account is to be considered personal financial advice.
Subject: Navigating the Ebb and Flow: Finding Clarity in Today’s Transitions![]()
![]()
Ever feel like the world is spinning a bit faster these days, and we’re bombarded with more information than we can possibly process? It’s a common sentiment in our age of what some call "infobesity" – seeking information but often feeling like we’re drowning in data, where much of what we hear is just ‘noise’, background clutter that can easily misdirect or be misunderstood.![]()
![]()
We’re clearly in a period of profound transition – from the energy we use (see the International Energy Agency: www.iea.org/), the infrastructure that supports us (consider insights from Infrastructure Australia: www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/), to the very nature of work with the rise of Artificial Intelligence (as researched by the Brookings Institution: www.brookings.edu/research/topic/artificial-intelligence/), shifting societal expectations (tracked by Pew Research Center: www.pewresearch.org/global/), and even the global currents of trade and connection (monitored by the World Trade Organization: www.wto.org/).![]()
![]()
It brings to mind that old saying about history not repeating, but certainly rhyming. We’re seeing echoes of past transformations. Think of the shift from sail to steam, or the obsolescence that came with Betamax giving way to VHS, and then MySpace to Facebook. These moments created enormous opportunity but also significant "redundancy risk" for established ways of doing things. That’s a familiar tune, isn’t it?![]()
![]()
Today, markets are grappling with similar, highly asymmetrical risks. There’s a lot to process amidst the constant flow of news and opinions, making it even more crucial to filter the signal from the noise.![]()
![]()
Yet, amidst this flux, it’s vital to anchor ourselves with a wider perspective. For many in the developed world, our daily lives, wealth, and the sheer breadth of opportunities are at historically elevated levels. This juxtaposition of rapid change and underlying prosperity is one of the defining features of our current era.![]()
![]()
The key, as always, lies in understanding these larger "rhythms" of change, discerning the enduring principles from the transient noise, and navigating with foresight and a steady hand. It’s about building resilience to weather the transitions while positioning to embrace the genuine advancements they unlock. In a world of information overload, the ability to discern signal from noise and focus on what truly matters is more valuable than ever.![]()
![]()
Food for thought as we all navigate these fascinating, challenging, and ultimately opportunity-rich times.![]()
![]()
#HistoricalCycles #MarketTransitions #FinancialPlanning #Infobesity #SignalVsNoise #Perspective #FutureReady #WealthPyramidThinking
The RBA has cut official interest rates by 0.25%. The official rate is now 3.85%.![]()
![]()
www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2025/mr-25-13.html![]()
![]()
Early parts of the RBA Statement clarify the difficult conditions Australia is facing in terms of markets, economics and politics. ![]()
![]()
"Uncertainty in the world economy has increased over the past three months and volatility in financial markets rose sharply for a time. While recent announcements on tariffs have resulted in a rebound in financial market prices, there is still considerable uncertainty about the final scope of the tariffs and policy responses in other countries. Geopolitical uncertainties also remain pronounced. These developments are expected to have an adverse effect on global economic activity, particularly if households and firms delay expenditure pending greater clarity on the outlook. This has also contributed to a weaker outlook for growth, employment and inflation in Australia. That said, world trade policy is changing rapidly, thereby making the central forecasts subject to considerable uncertainty."![]()
![]()
The recent strong jobs report was not sufficient to dampen the RBA’s view of inflation being at or close to its preferred level. Should tariffs and geopolitical noise become to loud and discordant, the RBA is in a position to act further if necessary. ![]()
![]()
"The Board considered a severe downside scenario and noted that monetary policy is well placed to respond decisively to international developments if they were to have material implications for activity and inflation in Australia."![]()
![]()
And yet, there uncertainty continues, and the RBA makes it clear that further cuts, no action and even rises, are all still on the table…![]()
![]()
"The Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions. In doing so, it will pay close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome."![]()
![]()
The all-important 10-year bond yield fell during the day, reducing some of the impact from recent increases in long term rates.
Is the Warren Buffett Indicator flashing a “Buy”?![]()
![]()
Yesterday’s AFR article says yes—but is that what Buffett would say?![]()
![]()
I’ve unpacked the charts, the history, and the financial planner’s view of what this all really means. This one’s for anyone investing real money in an unreal market.![]()
![]()
👉 www.michaelsmusings.com.au/features/is-the-warren-buffett-indicator-flashing-a-buy-signal![]()
![]()
As always—these are general musings, not personal advice.
Is the ‘Warren Buffett Indicator’ Flashing a Buy Signal? – 2025
www.michaelsmusings.com.au
Is the Warren Buffett Indicator flashing “buy”? A financial planner explores market hype, risks, and what Buffett is really doing in 2025.
What does “balanced” actually mean in your super fund—and is it working for you?![]()
![]()
If you’re retired, nearly there, or just watching the markets nervously, this post is for you. We’re in an environment where words like “defensive” and “balanced” are being tested more than ever.![]()
![]()
I’ve written a new blog post unpacking the real risks and expectations behind the term “balanced”—and what today’s turmoil might mean for tomorrow’s retirees.![]()
![]()
Read the full post here 👉 www.michaelsmusings.com.au/financial-planning-perth/balanced-super-fund-or-just-a-lable-what-it-r…![]()
![]()
(As always, this isn’t personal advice—just musings.)
Balanced Super Fund: What Does It Really Mean?
www.michaelsmusings.com.au
Your super fund says you’re ‘balanced’—but are you? A frank look at how balance in investing may not be what you think.
Sharemarkets around the world have fallen in response to the imposing of punitive USA tariffs on friend and foe, alike. Today’s share market is down, but lifted a little as some buyers emerged. ![]()
![]()
What is important for a portfolio is the impact on bonds. As more people have sold investments in risky assets and placed some or all of that money into more defensive cash and bonds, the price of bonds has risen. The impact is to reduce the ‘yield’ or the percentage of income received. The effect is to see long-term (10-year in this case) government bond yields fall from 4.5% on the 27th March, down to 4.1% just now. This is a fairly standard move for investment markets. And it’s handy when you have some bonds mixed in with your shares. ![]()
![]()
There is, of course, much debate and hand-wringing over what unexpected or foolish next-step the USA Administration will take. If you were Donald Trump, you’d bring forward those massive tax cuts, wouldn’t you? More money in the hand will help massage consumer anger over rising prices, as a falling USA dollar (compared with its major trading partners, but definitely NOT Australia) combines with tariffs to see steep rises in many products.![]()
![]()
As usual, please remember to not panic – check your investments to ensure they are where you think they should be and they are aligned with the levels of risk you are comfortable to hold in volatile times.
